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VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

28-18-14  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 7:00 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

35-19-6  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Shea Theodore
GOALTENDER

Shea Theodore

#27 | Defense
@
Alex Lyon
GOALTENDER

Alex Lyon

#34 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Shea Theodore None-None -- -- --
Alex Lyon None-None 2.00 0.931 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 2.00
-- Save % 0.931
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
📊
SABRES
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
SABRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Buffalo)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 SabresBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

15.9%

Sabres Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

VGK By 1 goal

6.6%

VGK By 2-3 goals

3.7%

BUF By 1 goal

17.5%

BUF By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
VEGAS
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
3
VEGAS
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sabres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sabres Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sabres (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Sabres (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 BUF @ VGK 2 - 0
Mar 3, 2026 VGK @ BUF 2 - 3
Mar 15, 2025 VGK @ BUF 3 - 4
Jan 4, 2025 BUF @ VGK 1 - 3
Mar 2, 2024 VGK @ BUF 2 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +3.7%
Buffalo: 26.3% vs Vegas: 22.6%
Hits (L5) +25.3% more
Vegas: 22.3 vs Buffalo: 16.6
Blocked Shots (L5) +16.1% more
Vegas: 14.5 vs Buffalo: 12.2
Takeaways (L5) +10.7% more
Vegas: 4.9 vs Buffalo: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 1.0 2
BUF Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
51%MONEY49%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
VGK
BUF
VGK
ML
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
TTL
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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