Home / NHL Projections NHL / Lightning @ Wild TB @ MIN

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

38-16-4  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 9:30 PM ET
Grand Casino Arena
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

WILDMIN

35-16-10  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Filip Gustavsson
GOALTENDER

Filip Gustavsson

#32 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 4.12 0.810 --
Filip Gustavsson None-None 1.00 0.960 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.12 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.810 Save % Ldr 0.960
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
WILD
100%
LIGHTNING --
WILD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 WildMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Wild Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around MIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

MIN By 1 goal

12.1%

MIN By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wild Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wild (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Wild (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Push
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 8, 2026 MIN @ TB 2 - 3
Mar 24, 2026 MIN @ TB 3 - 6
Mar 3, 2026 TB @ MIN 1 - 5
Nov 1, 2024 TB @ MIN 3 - 5
Oct 24, 2024 MIN @ TB 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +21.8% more
Tampa Bay: 22.8 vs Minnesota: 17.8
Faceoff % (L5) +5.2%
Tampa Bay: 49.8% vs Minnesota: 44.7%
Blocked Shots (L5) +15.7% more
Minnesota: 15.0 vs Tampa Bay: 12.9
Power Play % (L5) +12.0%
Minnesota: 43.5% vs Tampa Bay: 31.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 1
MIN Score 2.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
23%MONEY77%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TB
MIN
TB
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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