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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

31-15-13  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 7:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

BRUINSBOS

33-21-5  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Kris Letang
GOALTENDER

Kris Letang

#58 | Defense
@
Jeremy Swayman
GOALTENDER

Jeremy Swayman

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Kris Letang None-None -- -- --
Jeremy Swayman None-None 1.00 0.971 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 1.00
-- Save % 0.971
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
📊
BRUINS
0%
PENGUINS --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
PenguinsPIT (-3.5) 0 BruinsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

30.9%

Bruins Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

PIT By 1 goal

12.1%

PIT By 2-3 goals

9.3%

BOS By 1 goal

19.7%

BOS By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
PITTSBURGH
4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
2
PITTSBURGH
3
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bruins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bruins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Bruins (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 BOS @ PIT 4 - 5
Mar 3, 2026 PIT @ BOS 1 - 2
Jan 11, 2026 PIT @ BOS 0 - 1
Apr 13, 2025 BOS @ PIT 4 - 1
Mar 1, 2025 BOS @ PIT 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +18.4% more
Boston: 13.2 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Power Play % (L5) +17.8%
Boston: 20.3% vs Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Hits (L5) +14.3% more
Boston: 20.8 vs Pittsburgh: 18.2
Faceoff % (L5) +4.4%
Boston: 50.7% vs Pittsburgh: 46.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.0 1
BOS Score 4.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
37%MONEY63%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
PIT
BOS
PIT
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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