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OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

29-22-8  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Rogers Place
View Odds Details →

EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

29-24-8  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
@
Jake Walman
GOALTENDER

Jake Walman

#96 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Linus Ullmark None-None 4.85 0.865 --
Jake Walman None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.85 GAA --
0.865 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
📊
OILERS
0%
SENATORS --
OILERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Edmonton)
SenatorsOTT (-3.5) 0 OilersEDM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Senators Cover

2.3%

Oilers Cover

97.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)

OTT By 1 goal

0.9%

OTT By 2-3 goals

0.3%

EDM By 1 goal

6.6%

EDM By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
1
OTTAWA
5
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
2
OTTAWA
4
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oilers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Oilers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oilers (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim Oilers (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u7.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 OTT @ EDM 4 - 5
Oct 21, 2025 EDM @ OTT 3 - 2
Dec 22, 2024 OTT @ EDM 1 - 3
Nov 19, 2024 EDM @ OTT 5 - 2
Mar 24, 2024 EDM @ OTT 3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +31.9% more
Edmonton: 36.9 vs Ottawa: 28.0
Faceoff % (L5) +2.6%
Edmonton: 54.1% vs Ottawa: 51.5%
Takeaways (L5) +38.0% more
Ottawa: 6.1 vs Edmonton: 3.8
Blocked Shots (L5) +29.0% more
Ottawa: 15.6 vs Edmonton: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OTT Score 1.0 4
EDM Score 5.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
95%MONEY5%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
OTT
EDM
OTT
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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