Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Jazz DEN @ UTAH

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

37-24  |  Road

128
FINAL
Mon, Mar 2 • 9:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

18-42  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
JAZZ
100%
NUGGETS --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
257.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

46.0%

Jazz Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTAH +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

DEN By 1-7 points

26.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

16.9%

UTAH By 1-7 points

24.3%

UTAH By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
129
DENVER
128
UTAH
Simulated Score
109
DENVER
118
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jazz Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jazz (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Jazz (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o242.0 Win
Proj Total: 257.0
D
Sim u242.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 DEN @ UTAH 130 - 117
Mar 27, 2026 UTAH @ DEN 129 - 135
Mar 2, 2026 DEN @ UTAH 128 - 125
Dec 22, 2025 UTAH @ DEN 112 - 135
Mar 28, 2025 UTAH @ DEN 93 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +15.0% more
Denver: 48.2 vs Utah: 41.0
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Denver: 46.2% vs Utah: 42.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Denver: 33.5% vs Utah: 30.0%
Steals (L5) +90.4% more
Utah: 12.2 vs Denver: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 129.0 128
UTAH Score 128.0 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.0 / 33.5 38.0 / 41.0
Assists 26.2 / 26.1 24.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.1 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 46.2 51.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 74.0 85.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 41.0 / 48.2 33.0 / 38.0
Steals 12.2 / 6.4 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 14.7 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
DEN
UTAH
DEN
ML
60% 96-63
54% 57-48
48% 40-43
55% 47-39
ATS
68% 108-51
63% 65-38-2
48% 40-43
55% 47-39
TTL
75% 119-39-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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