MCNEESE
COWBOYSMCN
25-5 | Road
75
NICHOLLS
COLONELSNICH
13-17 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
0%
COLONELS
100%
COWBOYS
--
COLONELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
NICHOLLS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NICH +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NICH)
MCN By 1-7 points
27.2%
MCN By 8-14 points
23.0%
NICH By 1-7 points
18.6%
NICH By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
McNeese
77
MCNEESE
Nicholls
72
NICHOLLS
Simulated Score
McNeese
75
MCNEESE
Nicholls
72
NICHOLLS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cowboys
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cowboys
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Colonels (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Cowboys (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
MCN @ NICH
75 - 65
Jan 12, 2026
NICH @ MCN
68 - 94
Feb 1, 2025
MCN @ NICH
63 - 71
Jan 11, 2025
NICH @ MCN
71 - 80
Mar 13, 2024
NICH @ MCN
76 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+13.4% more
McNeese: 9.6
vs
Nicholls: 8.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.1%
McNeese: 66.2%
vs
Nicholls: 63.0%
Blocks (L5)
+36.5% more
Nicholls: 3.6
vs
McNeese: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+36.4% more
Nicholls: 11.1
vs
McNeese: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MCN Score
77.0
75
NICH Score
72.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.6 / 24.9
29.0 / 21.0
Assists
13.6 / 11.4
8.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.6
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 44.2
33.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
63.0 / 66.2
67.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
33.7 / 33.0
45.0 / 29.0
Steals
8.4 / 9.6
0.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 8.1
18.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MCN
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
NICH
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MCN
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
NICH
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MCN
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NICH
MCN
NICH
MCN
ML
53%
17-15
67%
22-11
68%
19-9
88%
28-4
ATS
47%
15-17
76%
25-8
68%
19-9
88%
28-4
TTL
56%
18-14
42%
14-19
100%
28-0
100%
32-0
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