NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
10-20 | Road
62
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
17-13 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
100%
VAQUEROS
0%
DEMONS
--
VAQUEROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (UT Rio Grande Valley)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around RGV -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RGV)
NWST By 1-7 points
13.7%
NWST By 8-14 points
4.8%
RGV By 1-7 points
25.3%
RGV By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern State
70
NORTHWESTERN STATE
UT Rio Grande Valley
78
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Simulated Score
Northwestern State
76
NORTHWESTERN STATE
UT Rio Grande Valley
70
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Vaqueros
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Demons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Vaqueros (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Demons (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
NWST @ RGV
62 - 74
Jan 12, 2026
RGV @ NWST
63 - 64
Feb 3, 2025
RGV @ NWST
63 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+67.1% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 15.0
vs
Northwestern State: 9.0
Turnovers (L5)
+10.8% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 11.4
vs
Northwestern State: 10.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 47.8%
vs
Northwestern State: 41.1%
Blocks (L5)
+9.6% more
Northwestern State: 3.0
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NWST Score
70.0
62
RGV Score
78.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 35.5
39.0 / 30.0
Assists
15.0 / 9.0
16.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.7 / 3.0
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 41.1
49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
77.2 / 77.9
70.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
34.4 / 33.3
31.0 / 34.0
Steals
3.6 / 3.9
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 10.3
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
RGV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
RGV
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RGV
NWST
RGV
NWST
ML
53%
16-14
68%
21-10
54%
15-13
77%
23-7
ATS
53%
16-14
68%
21-10
54%
15-13
77%
23-7
TTL
60%
18-12
39%
12-19
100%
28-0
100%
30-0
