Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Cardinals SFA @ UIW

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

LUMBERJACKSSFA

26-4  |  Road

76
FINAL
Mon, Mar 2 • 7:30 PM ET
McDermott Center
View Odds Details →

INCARNATE WORD

CARDINALSUIW

12-18  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
LUMBERJACKS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
LumberjacksSFA (-3.5) 0 CardinalsUIW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

93.3%

Cardinals Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SFA -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)

SFA By 1-7 points

15.3%

SFA By 8-14 points

25.3%

UIW By 1-7 points

4.8%

UIW By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
82
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
67
INCARNATE WORD
Simulated Score
75
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
68
INCARNATE WORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lumberjacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lumberjacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lumberjacks (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Lumberjacks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 2, 2026 SFA @ UIW 76 - 68
Jan 12, 2026 UIW @ SFA 46 - 56
Feb 22, 2025 SFA @ UIW 61 - 63
Jan 4, 2025 UIW @ SFA 55 - 49
Jan 16, 2021 SFA @ UIW 83 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +67.7% more
Stephen F. Austin: 3.3 vs Incarnate Word: 1.1
Assists (L5) +17.7% more
Stephen F. Austin: 12.8 vs Incarnate Word: 10.5
Rebounding (L5) +14.5% more
Stephen F. Austin: 36.4 vs Incarnate Word: 31.1
Steals (L5) +9.8% more
Stephen F. Austin: 6.2 vs Incarnate Word: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFA Score 82.0 76
UIW Score 67.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.4 / 31.7 28.0 / 50.0
Assists 10.5 / 12.8 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.1 / 3.3 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 44.3 49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 79.0 / 75.2 33.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 31.1 / 36.4 28.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.6 / 6.2 3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 8.0 4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA Advantage
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
UIW
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA Advantage
23-9-0 (71.9%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
UIW
10-18-0 (35.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.9
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIW
SFA
UIW
SFA
ML
47% 14-16
59% 17-12
76% 22-7
79% 23-6
ATS
53% 16-14
59% 17-12
77% 23-7
79% 23-6
TTL
60% 18-12
62% 18-11
100% 30-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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