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NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

11-16  |  Road

77
FINAL
Mon, Mar 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Hytche Center
View Odds Details →

MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

HAWKSUMES

9-20  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
HAWKS
100%
EAGLES --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (North Carolina Central)
EaglesNCCU (-3.5) 0 HawksUMES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

69.1%

Hawks Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NCCU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCCU)

NCCU By 1-7 points

27.2%

NCCU By 8-14 points

23.0%

UMES By 1-7 points

18.6%

UMES By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
67
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
62
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Simulated Score
78
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
63
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Eagles (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u133.5 Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u133.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 UMES @ NCCU 76 - 83
Mar 2, 2026 NCCU @ UMES 77 - 73
Feb 2, 2026 UMES @ NCCU 63 - 65
Feb 26, 2025 NCCU @ UMES 59 - 68
Jan 11, 2025 UMES @ NCCU 69 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +30.7% more
North Carolina Central: 3.4 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 2.3
Steals (L5) +20.9% more
North Carolina Central: 8.1 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 6.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.9%
North Carolina Central: 39.1% vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 29.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
North Carolina Central: 72.5% vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 68.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCCU Score 67.0 77
UMES Score 62.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.2 / 39.1 41.0 / 45.0
Assists 13.2 / 10.9 21.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.4 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 46.9 50.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 68.6 / 72.5 75.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 30.6 / 28.7 44.0 / 20.0
Steals 6.4 / 8.1 7.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 16.2 / 11.5 23.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCCU Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
UMES
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCCU Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
UMES
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
UMES
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMES
NCCU
UMES
NCCU
ML
66% 21-11
65% 20-11
81% 21-5
81% 22-5
ATS
69% 22-10
71% 22-9
81% 21-5
81% 22-5
TTL
66% 21-11
55% 17-14
100% 26-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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