NORFOLK STATE
SPARTANSNORF
15-14 | Road
84
MORGAN STATE
BEARSMORG
12-15 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
BEARS
100%
SPARTANS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NORFOLK STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Norfolk State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NORF -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NORF)
NORF By 1-7 points
27.2%
NORF By 8-14 points
23.0%
MORG By 1-7 points
18.6%
MORG By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Norfolk State
80
NORFOLK STATE
Morgan State
75
MORGAN STATE
Simulated Score
Norfolk State
69
NORFOLK STATE
Morgan State
75
MORGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spartans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spartans (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Bears (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
NORF @ MORG
84 - 90
Jan 26, 2026
MORG @ NORF
79 - 78
Mar 14, 2025
MORG @ NORF
55 - 58
Feb 24, 2025
MORG @ NORF
60 - 69
Jan 13, 2025
NORF @ MORG
74 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+43.2% more
Norfolk State: 7.8
vs
Morgan State: 4.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.2%
Norfolk State: 50.1%
vs
Morgan State: 39.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.1%
Norfolk State: 40.4%
vs
Morgan State: 33.3%
Rebounding (L5)
+28.3% more
Morgan State: 37.6
vs
Norfolk State: 29.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NORF Score
80.0
84
MORG Score
75.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 40.4
50.0 / 26.0
Assists
12.5 / 10.9
20.0 / 17.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.1
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.9 / 50.1
49.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
75.1 / 72.7
83.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
37.6 / 29.3
35.0 / 50.0
Steals
4.4 / 7.8
1.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 11.7
9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NORF
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.0
MORG
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NORF
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.0
MORG
Advantage
14-12-1
(53.8%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1%
Total +/-: +4.6
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORG
NORF
MORG
NORF
ML
50%
14-14
67%
20-10
58%
14-10
71%
20-8
ATS
50%
14-14
63%
19-11
58%
14-10
72%
21-8
TTL
50%
14-14
60%
18-12
100%
24-0
100%
29-0
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