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IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

12-18  |  Road

65
FINAL
Mon, Mar 2 • 10:00 PM ET
Hornet Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

9-20  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
0%
📊
HORNETS
100%
BENGALS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Idaho State)
BengalsIDST (-3.5) 0 HornetsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

72.6%

Hornets Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IDST -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)

IDST By 1-7 points

26.8%

IDST By 8-14 points

24.3%

SAC By 1-7 points

16.9%

SAC By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
IDAHO STATE
68
SACRAMENTO STATE
Simulated Score
65
IDAHO STATE
68
SACRAMENTO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bengals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bengals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Hornets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 2, 2026 IDST @ SAC 65 - 83
Jan 1, 2026 SAC @ IDST 84 - 97
Feb 22, 2025 SAC @ IDST 66 - 83
Jan 23, 2025 IDST @ SAC 71 - 75
Feb 8, 2024 SAC @ IDST 40 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +81.3% more
Idaho State: 5.5 vs Sacramento State: 1.0
Turnovers (L5) +30.6% more
Idaho State: 9.7 vs Sacramento State: 6.8
Rebounding (L5) +14.6% more
Idaho State: 33.2 vs Sacramento State: 28.4
Free Throw % (L5) +4.3%
Idaho State: 79.0% vs Sacramento State: 74.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDST Score 74.0 65
SAC Score 68.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 32.2 39.0 / 21.0
Assists 10.4 / 10.6 21.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.0 / 5.5 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.7 / 44.7 54.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 79.0 78.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 28.4 / 33.2 33.0 / 32.0
Steals 8.8 / 5.5 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 6.8 / 9.7 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDST Advantage
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDST Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
IDST
SAC
IDST
ML
57% 17-13
59% 19-13
87% 26-4
72% 23-9
ATS
73% 22-8
50% 16-16
87% 27-4
72% 23-9
TTL
60% 18-12
59% 19-13
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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