Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Grizzlies @ Bears MONT @ UNCO

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

16-14  |  Road

57
FINAL
Mon, Mar 2 • 8:00 PM ET
Bank of Colorado Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

19-11  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Montana)
GrizzliesMONT (-3.5) 0 BearsUNCO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

81.6%

Bears Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MONT -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

MONT By 1-7 points

24.3%

MONT By 8-14 points

26.8%

UNCO By 1-7 points

12.2%

UNCO By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
92
MONTANA
83
NORTHERN COLORADO
Simulated Score
70
MONTANA
76
NORTHERN COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 UNCO @ MONT 89 - 95
Mar 2, 2026 MONT @ UNCO 57 - 85
Jan 3, 2026 UNCO @ MONT 79 - 88
Mar 12, 2025 MONT @ UNCO 91 - 83
Feb 6, 2025 MONT @ UNCO 86 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +45.8% more
Montana: 6.7 vs Northern Colorado: 3.6
Turnovers (L5) +20.6% more
Montana: 13.1 vs Northern Colorado: 10.4
Assists (L5) +11.3% more
Montana: 14.9 vs Northern Colorado: 13.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Montana: 38.2% vs Northern Colorado: 34.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONT Score 92.0 57
UNCO Score 83.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 38.2 37.0 / 23.0
Assists 13.2 / 14.9 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.8 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.2 / 48.3 49.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 73.2 80.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 31.8 41.0 / 33.0
Steals 3.6 / 6.7 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 13.1 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONT
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
UNCO Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCO
MONT
UNCO
MONT
ML
50% 16-16
39% 13-20
66% 21-11
73% 24-9
ATS
53% 17-15
55% 18-15
66% 21-11
73% 24-9
TTL
50% 16-16
59% 19-13-1
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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