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DALLAS

STARSDAL

36-14-9  |  Road

6
FINAL
Mon, Mar 2 • 10:00 PM ET
Rogers Arena
View Odds Details →

VANCOUVER

CANUCKSVAN

18-34-7  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
@
Nikita Tolopilo
GOALTENDER

Nikita Tolopilo

#60 | G
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jake Oettinger None-None 1.00 0.929 --
Nikita Tolopilo None-None 6.00 0.838 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 6.00
0.929 Ldr Save % 0.838
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
📊
CANUCKS
100%
STARS --
CANUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
VANCOUVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 CanucksVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

30.9%

Canucks Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VAN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

VAN By 1 goal

12.1%

VAN By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
DALLAS
2
VANCOUVER
Simulated Score
2
DALLAS
5
VANCOUVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Canucks Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Canucks (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Canucks (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 2, 2026 DAL @ VAN 6 - 1
Nov 20, 2025 DAL @ VAN 4 - 2
Oct 16, 2025 VAN @ DAL 5 - 3
Apr 8, 2025 VAN @ DAL 6 - 5
Mar 9, 2025 DAL @ VAN 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +30.0%
Dallas: 32.0% vs Vancouver: 2.0%
Blocked Shots (L5) +26.0% more
Dallas: 17.4 vs Vancouver: 12.9
Hits (L5) +22.2% more
Dallas: 22.2 vs Vancouver: 17.3
Shots on Goal (L5) +9.4% more
Dallas: 27.8 vs Vancouver: 25.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 3.0 6
VAN Score 2.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
80%MONEY20%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
DAL
VAN
DAL
ML
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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