Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cyclones @ Wildcats ISU @ ARIZ

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

24-5  |  Road

57
FINAL
Mon, Mar 2 • 9:00 PM ET
McKale Center at ALKEME Arena
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

27-2  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
CYCLONES
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
CYCLONES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CyclonesISU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cyclones Cover

34.5%

Wildcats Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARIZ +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

ISU By 1-7 points

27.4%

ISU By 8-14 points

21.6%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

20.1%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
72
IOWA STATE
68
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
68
IOWA STATE
72
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cyclones Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 ISU @ ARIZ 80 - 82
Mar 2, 2026 ISU @ ARIZ 57 - 73
Mar 1, 2025 ARIZ @ ISU 67 - 84
Jan 27, 2025 ISU @ ARIZ 75 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.7% more
Iowa State: 8.3 vs Arizona: 6.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Iowa State: 33.6% vs Arizona: 31.7%
Rebounding (L5) +37.1% more
Arizona: 42.4 vs Iowa State: 30.9
Free Throw % (L5) +11.1%
Arizona: 76.5% vs Iowa State: 65.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 72.0 57
ARIZ Score 68.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.7 / 33.6 33.0 / 23.0
Assists 15.1 / 14.8 14.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.6 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 43.9 46.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 76.5 / 65.4 88.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 42.4 / 30.9 40.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.0 / 8.3 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 8.3 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
ARIZ
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
ISU
ARIZ
ISU
ML
67% 26-13
57% 21-16
68% 23-11
76% 26-8
ATS
74% 29-10
62% 23-14
68% 23-11
76% 26-8
TTL
56% 22-17
54% 20-17
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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