MONTANA STATE
BOBCATSMTST
17-13 | Road
76
NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
10-20 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
100%
BOBCATS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NAU +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAU)
MTST By 1-7 points
26.8%
MTST By 8-14 points
24.3%
NAU By 1-7 points
16.9%
NAU By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Montana State
66
MONTANA STATE
Northern Arizona
60
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Montana State
75
MONTANA STATE
Northern Arizona
69
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lumberjacks (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
MTST @ NAU
76 - 65
Jan 3, 2026
NAU @ MTST
68 - 77
Feb 6, 2025
MTST @ NAU
64 - 69
Jan 11, 2025
NAU @ MTST
53 - 58
Feb 10, 2024
MTST @ NAU
71 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+26.7% more
Montana State: 34.0
vs
Northern Arizona: 24.9
Assists (L5)
+11.6% more
Montana State: 12.3
vs
Northern Arizona: 10.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Montana State: 48.9%
vs
Northern Arizona: 44.0%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.7%
Montana State: 64.1%
vs
Northern Arizona: 60.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTST Score
66.0
76
NAU Score
60.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 38.8
33.0 / 39.0
Assists
10.9 / 12.3
13.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.6
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 48.9
45.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
60.5 / 64.1
75.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
24.9 / 34.0
31.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.4
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 10.6
9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST
Advantage
16-12-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
NAU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.5
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAU
MTST
NAU
MTST
ML
62%
20-12
52%
16-15
81%
26-6
67%
20-10
ATS
62%
20-12
52%
16-15
81%
26-6
67%
20-10
TTL
66%
21-11
65%
20-11
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
New Mexico Lobos to Host Washington State and Arizona State in P…
NC State Basketball: Justin Gainey Era Begins with 32-Game Slate…
UConn Adds Shaw with Deep Basketball Roots and Veteran Presence …
What Are the Biggest Takeaways From the Kings’ Summer League?
Union Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs Inaugurates Indo…