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DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

27-2  |  Road

93
FINAL
Mon, Mar 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Lenovo Center
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

19-10  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
0%
📊
WOLFPACK
100%
BLUE DEVILS --
WOLFPACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Duke)
Blue DevilsDUKE (-3.5) 0 WolfpackNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Devils Cover

91.9%

Wolfpack Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DUKE -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

DUKE By 1-7 points

16.9%

DUKE By 8-14 points

26.2%

NCSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

NCSU By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
87
DUKE
73
NC STATE
Simulated Score
70
DUKE
78
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolfpack Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Devils (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Wolfpack (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 2, 2026 DUKE @ NCSU 93 - 64
Jan 27, 2025 NCSU @ DUKE 64 - 74
Mar 31, 2024 NCSU @ DUKE 76 - 64
Mar 14, 2024 NCSU @ DUKE 74 - 69
Mar 4, 2024 DUKE @ NCSU 79 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.3% more
Duke: 17.7 vs NC State: 13.7
Rebounding (L5) +17.7% more
Duke: 40.5 vs NC State: 33.3
Turnovers (L5) +12.2% more
Duke: 8.7 vs NC State: 7.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
Duke: 42.1% vs NC State: 32.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 87.0 93
NCSU Score 73.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 42.1 24.0 / 39.0
Assists 13.7 / 17.7 12.0 / 21.0
Blocks 4.1 / 1.9 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 48.9 35.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 79.3 / 81.9 65.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 33.3 / 40.5 32.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.2 / 7.3 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 7.7 / 8.7 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
NCSU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
NCSU
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
DUKE
NCSU
DUKE
ML
59% 20-14
71% 27-11
55% 18-15
73% 24-9
ATS
71% 24-10
79% 30-8
55% 18-15
73% 24-9
TTL
71% 24-10
47% 18-20
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
si 1 day, 13 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 7 hours ago
Duke's Cameron Crazies Crowned Top Student Section for 2026-27
yahoo 6 days, 7 hours ago
Duke Hosts Five-Star Asa Montgomery for Official Visit, Looking …
yahoo 1 week ago
Caleb Foster Anchors Duke's Loaded Backcourt for 2026-27
headtopics 1 week, 5 days ago