SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SALUKISSIU
15-15 | Road
81
EVANSVILLE
PURPLE ACESEVAN
7-23 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
SALUKIS
0%
PURPLE ACES
100%
SALUKIS
--
PURPLE ACES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Southern Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIU)
SIU By 1-7 points
9.3%
SIU By 8-14 points
20.1%
EVAN By 1-7 points
2.2%
EVAN By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Illinois
73
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Evansville
54
EVANSVILLE
Simulated Score
Southern Illinois
65
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Evansville
72
EVANSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Salukis
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Purple Aces
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Salukis (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Purple Aces (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
SIU @ EVAN
81 - 67
Feb 12, 2026
EVAN @ SIU
60 - 86
Feb 5, 2025
SIU @ EVAN
68 - 59
Jan 1, 2025
EVAN @ SIU
68 - 53
Feb 25, 2024
SIU @ EVAN
65 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+47.7% more
Southern Illinois: 8.9
vs
Evansville: 4.7
Rebounding (L5)
+26.1% more
Southern Illinois: 37.3
vs
Evansville: 27.5
Blocks (L5)
+13.6% more
Southern Illinois: 3.4
vs
Evansville: 2.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+14.3%
Evansville: 37.9%
vs
Southern Illinois: 23.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIU Score
73.0
81
EVAN Score
54.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 23.5
32.0 / 41.0
Assists
13.2 / 12.8
16.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.9 / 3.4
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 42.4
43.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
78.3 / 68.4
81.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
27.5 / 37.3
28.0 / 39.0
Steals
4.7 / 8.9
2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 11.6
9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
EVAN
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIU
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
EVAN
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EVAN
SIU
EVAN
SIU
ML
56%
18-14
53%
17-15
62%
20-12
47%
15-17
ATS
66%
21-11
56%
18-14
62%
20-12
47%
15-17
TTL
62%
20-12
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
