PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
29-32 | Road
101
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
30-31 | Home
135
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
HAWKS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
POR By 1-7 points
18.6%
POR By 8-14 points
8.0%
ATL By 1-7 points
27.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
121
PORTLAND
Atlanta
126
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Portland
112
PORTLAND
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+7)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o236.0
Push
Proj Total: 247.0
D
Sim
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
POR @ ATL
101 - 135
Jan 15, 2026
ATL @ POR
101 - 117
Apr 1, 2025
POR @ ATL
127 - 113
Nov 17, 2024
ATL @ POR
110 - 114
Mar 27, 2024
POR @ ATL
106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+23.8% more
Atlanta: 53.4
vs
Portland: 43.1
Steals (L5)
+23.7% more
Atlanta: 10.9
vs
Portland: 8.8
Assists (L5)
+17.5% more
Atlanta: 29.2
vs
Portland: 24.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.3%
Atlanta: 79.6%
vs
Portland: 71.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
121.0
101
ATL Score
126.0
135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 28.3
38.0 / 35.0
Assists
29.2 / 24.9
36.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.0 / 6.9
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 44.1
55.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 71.4
78.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
53.4 / 43.1
54.0 / 38.0
Steals
10.9 / 8.8
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 16.7
15.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
POR
ATL
POR
ML
50%
52-52
53%
56-49
55%
48-40
55%
49-40
ATS
53%
55-48-1
62%
65-39-1
55%
48-40
55%
49-40
TTL
53%
55-48-1
56%
58-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
89-0
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