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DETROIT

PISTONSDET

44-14  |  Road

106
FINAL
Sun, Mar 1 • 6:00 PM ET
Kia Center
View Odds Details →

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

31-27  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
📊
MAGIC
100%
PISTONS --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Detroit)
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

90.3%

Magic Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-7 points

18.6%

DET By 8-14 points

26.8%

ORL By 1-7 points

6.8%

ORL By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
125
DETROIT
112
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
105
DETROIT
110
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pistons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Magic Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pistons (+5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Magic (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o224.0 Loss
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim u224.0 Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 ORL @ DET 94 - 116
May 1, 2026 DET @ ORL 93 - 79
Apr 29, 2026 ORL @ DET 109 - 116
Apr 27, 2026 DET @ ORL 88 - 94
Apr 25, 2026 DET @ ORL 105 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +30.3% more
Detroit: 7.7 vs Orlando: 5.4
Turnovers (L5) +22.8% more
Detroit: 15.6 vs Orlando: 12.0
Rebounding (L5) +17.5% more
Detroit: 52.1 vs Orlando: 43.0
Steals (L5) +14.6% more
Detroit: 10.9 vs Orlando: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 125.0 106
ORL Score 112.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 29.3 28.0 / 13.0
Assists 25.8 / 26.8 20.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.4 / 7.7 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 47.5 38.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 73.1 / 76.0 80.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 43.0 / 52.1 41.0 / 56.0
Steals 9.3 / 10.9 8.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 15.6 19.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
ORL
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
DET
ORL
DET
ML
61% 65-42
55% 64-53
56% 51-40
49% 47-49
ATS
64% 68-38-1
53% 60-54-3
56% 51-40
49% 47-49
TTL
57% 61-46
60% 70-46-1
100% 91-0
100% 96-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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