MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
22-36 | Road
125
INDIANA
PACERSIND
15-45 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
PACERS
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
MEM By 1-7 points
8.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
2.2%
IND By 1-7 points
20.1%
IND By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
113
MEMPHIS
Indiana
125
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Memphis
114
MEMPHIS
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+1)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o237.0
Loss
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim
u237.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
MEM @ IND
125 - 106
Oct 25, 2025
IND @ MEM
103 - 128
Feb 20, 2025
MEM @ IND
113 - 127
Dec 1, 2024
IND @ MEM
121 - 136
Oct 14, 2024
MEM @ IND
120 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+12.4% more
Indiana: 15.7
vs
Memphis: 13.9
Blocks (L5)
+41.0% more
Memphis: 5.3
vs
Indiana: 3.1
Steals (L5)
+32.2% more
Memphis: 11.8
vs
Indiana: 8.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Memphis: 49.2%
vs
Indiana: 46.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
113.0
125
IND Score
125.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 37.7
38.0 / 43.0
Assists
29.2 / 29.7
29.0 / 34.0
Blocks
3.1 / 5.3
9.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
46.5 / 49.2
49.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
79.5 / 79.2
68.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
39.9 / 38.5
31.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.0 / 11.8
5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
15.7 / 13.9
19.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
Advantage
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MEM
IND
MEM
ML
48%
47-50
57%
59-44
54%
45-38
50%
41-41
ATS
59%
57-40
63%
65-38
54%
45-38
50%
41-41
TTL
54%
52-45
70%
71-31-1
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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