Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Mavericks OKC @ DAL

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

46-15  |  Road

100
FINAL
Sun, Mar 1 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

21-38  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
THUNDER --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

95.5%

Mavericks Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

12.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

23.0%

DAL By 1-7 points

3.3%

DAL By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
125
OKLAHOMA CITY
108
DALLAS
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+16) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u236.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim u236.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 OKC @ DAL 100 - 87
Dec 5, 2025 DAL @ OKC 111 - 132
Oct 27, 2025 OKC @ DAL 101 - 94
Oct 6, 2025 OKC @ DAL 89 - 106
Jan 23, 2025 DAL @ OKC 121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +46.9% more
Oklahoma City: 10.6 vs Dallas: 5.6
Blocks (L5) +42.1% more
Oklahoma City: 6.0 vs Dallas: 3.5
Free Throw % (L5) +15.4%
Oklahoma City: 84.4% vs Dallas: 69.0%
Assists (L5) +12.1% more
Oklahoma City: 27.6 vs Dallas: 24.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 125.0 100
DAL Score 108.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 37.9 29.0 / 21.0
Assists 24.3 / 27.6 20.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.5 / 6.0 1.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 45.0 39.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 84.4 75.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 47.3 49.0 / 46.0
Steals 5.6 / 10.6 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 16.9 / 14.6 17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
OKC
DAL
OKC
ML
62% 63-39
70% 80-34
54% 44-37
48% 46-49
ATS
67% 68-34
73% 83-30-1
54% 44-37
48% 46-49
TTL
59% 60-41-1
67% 76-38
100% 81-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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