MOUNT ST. MARY'S
MOUNTAINEERSMSM
14-16 | Road
69
FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
19-11 | Home
47
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
STAGS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS
--
STAGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
MSM By 1-7 points
18.6%
MSM By 8-14 points
8.0%
FAIR By 1-7 points
27.2%
FAIR By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Mount St. Mary's
66
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Fairfield
71
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
Mount St. Mary's
65
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Fairfield
78
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stags
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stags
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stags (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Stags (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
MSM @ FAIR
69 - 47
Feb 28, 2025
MSM @ FAIR
62 - 69
Dec 8, 2024
FAIR @ MSM
94 - 101
Mar 9, 2024
FAIR @ MSM
96 - 92
Feb 18, 2024
MSM @ FAIR
80 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+65.0% more
Fairfield: 3.6
vs
Mount St. Mary's: 2.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Fairfield: 49.4%
vs
Mount St. Mary's: 44.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Fairfield: 32.2%
vs
Mount St. Mary's: 30.3%
Assists (L5)
+13.1% more
Mount St. Mary's: 13.8
vs
Fairfield: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MSM Score
66.0
69
FAIR Score
71.0
47
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 30.3
25.0 / 38.0
Assists
12.0 / 13.8
6.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.2
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 44.9
24.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
63.6 / 66.3
70.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
39.3 / 40.0
35.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.2 / 7.8
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 13.1
15.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM
Advantage
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
FAIR
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
MSM
FAIR
MSM
ML
55%
18-15
53%
17-15
61%
20-13
61%
19-12
ATS
48%
16-17
62%
20-12
61%
20-13
61%
19-12
TTL
48%
16-17
81%
26-6
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
WVU Lands Major Eligibility Boost: Lorient and Buchanan Cleared …
UCLA Outlasts Purdue in 52-38 Shootout: Iamaleava Shines, Defens…
West Virginia Mountaineers Dominate UT Martin 52-7, Improve to 2…
West Virginia Mountaineers Dominate UT Martin Skyhawks 52-7 in H…
Missouri Forward Mark Mitchell Joins Louisville Lawsuit Seeking …