RIDER
BRONCSRID
4-24 | Road
61
SIENA
SAINTSSIE
19-11 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCS
100%
SAINTS
0%
BRONCS
--
SAINTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
SIENA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Siena)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIE -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIE)
RID By 1-7 points
6.8%
RID By 8-14 points
1.7%
SIE By 1-7 points
18.6%
SIE By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Rider
69
RIDER
Siena
82
SIENA
Simulated Score
Rider
69
RIDER
Siena
75
SIENA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Saints
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Saints
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Saints (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Saints (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
RID @ SIE
61 - 76
Jan 4, 2026
SIE @ RID
74 - 65
Mar 11, 2025
SIE @ RID
76 - 78
Feb 8, 2025
SIE @ RID
59 - 61
Feb 2, 2024
SIE @ RID
50 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+35.6% more
Siena: 11.7
vs
Rider: 8.6
Blocks (L5)
+20.6% more
Siena: 2.7
vs
Rider: 2.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.0%
Siena: 80.4%
vs
Rider: 70.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+9.8% more
Siena: 10.5
vs
Rider: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RID Score
69.0
61
SIE Score
82.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
23.9 / 26.6
43.0 / 27.0
Assists
11.7 / 8.6
13.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.2
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 37.7
45.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
80.4 / 70.4
88.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
30.2 / 33.1
36.0 / 31.0
Steals
4.6 / 10.7
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 9.6
8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
SIE
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
SIE
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIE
RID
SIE
RID
ML
66%
23-12
72%
21-8
48%
16-17
66%
19-10
ATS
66%
23-12
72%
21-8
48%
16-17
66%
19-10
TTL
54%
19-16
62%
18-11
100%
33-0
100%
29-0
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