NORTHERN IOWA
PANTHERSUNI
18-12 | Road
75
DRAKE
BULLDOGSDRKE
12-18 | Home
53
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
PANTHERS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DRAKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Drake)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DRKE -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DRKE)
UNI By 1-7 points
16.9%
UNI By 8-14 points
6.8%
DRKE By 1-7 points
26.8%
DRKE By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Iowa
66
NORTHERN IOWA
Drake
72
DRAKE
Simulated Score
Northern Iowa
70
NORTHERN IOWA
Drake
75
DRAKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
UNI @ DRKE
75 - 53
Feb 15, 2026
DRKE @ UNI
62 - 86
Feb 23, 2025
DRKE @ UNI
64 - 58
Jan 29, 2025
UNI @ DRKE
52 - 66
Feb 24, 2024
DRKE @ UNI
77 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+35.0% more
Drake: 3.3
vs
Northern Iowa: 2.5
Rebounding (L5)
+23.3% more
Drake: 34.2
vs
Northern Iowa: 27.7
Turnovers (L5)
+19.3% more
Drake: 11.2
vs
Northern Iowa: 9.4
Steals (L5)
+34.9% more
Northern Iowa: 6.3
vs
Drake: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNI Score
66.0
75
DRKE Score
72.0
53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 42.0
24.0 / 40.0
Assists
12.0 / 13.2
9.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.3 / 2.5
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 50.2
31.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
64.6 / 69.1
73.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 27.7
41.0 / 32.0
Steals
4.1 / 6.3
3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 9.4
15.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNI
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
DRKE
14-20-0
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNI
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
DRKE
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
DRKE
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DRKE
UNI
DRKE
UNI
ML
59%
20-14
51%
18-17
38%
13-21
56%
19-15
ATS
85%
29-5
49%
17-18
38%
13-21
56%
19-15
TTL
56%
19-15
69%
24-11
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
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