Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warriors @ Purple Eagles MRMK @ NIA

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

20-10  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sun, Mar 1 • 2:00 PM ET
Gallagher Center
View Odds Details →

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

8-21  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
PURPLE EAGLES
100%
WARRIORS --
PURPLE EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NIAGARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WarriorsMRMK (-3.5) 0 Purple EaglesNIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

46.0%

Purple Eagles Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NIA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIA)

MRMK By 1-7 points

26.2%

MRMK By 8-14 points

16.9%

NIA By 1-7 points

24.3%

NIA By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
80
MERRIMACK
79
NIAGARA
Simulated Score
68
MERRIMACK
61
NIAGARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Purple Eagles (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Warriors (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o127.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u127.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 MRMK @ NIA 73 - 66
Feb 6, 2025 NIA @ MRMK 59 - 64
Dec 8, 2024 MRMK @ NIA 80 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +53.5% more
Merrimack: 5.2 vs Niagara: 2.4
Steals (L5) +45.6% more
Merrimack: 8.9 vs Niagara: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +14.2%
Merrimack: 83.1% vs Niagara: 68.9%
Turnovers (L5) +71.9% more
Niagara: 12.7 vs Merrimack: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 80.0 73
NIA Score 79.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 31.0 39.0 / 41.0
Assists 16.4 / 12.6 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.4 / 5.2 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 41.9 48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 68.9 / 83.1 89.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 30.6 / 28.3 27.0 / 25.0
Steals 4.8 / 8.9 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 7.4 16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIA
MRMK
NIA
MRMK
ML
55% 16-13
47% 16-18
72% 21-8
65% 22-12
ATS
69% 20-9
53% 18-16
72% 21-8
65% 22-12
TTL
55% 16-13
62% 21-13
100% 29-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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