Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Boilermakers @ Buckeyes PUR @ OSU

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

22-6  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sun, Mar 1 • 1:30 PM ET
Value City Arena
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

17-11  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
BOILERMAKERS
0%
📊
BUCKEYES
100%
BOILERMAKERS --
BUCKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Purdue)
BoilermakersPUR (-3.5) 0 BuckeyesOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boilermakers Cover

88.5%

Buckeyes Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PUR -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

PUR By 1-7 points

20.1%

PUR By 8-14 points

27.2%

OSU By 1-7 points

8.0%

OSU By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
79
PURDUE
67
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
69
PURDUE
78
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Boilermakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buckeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Boilermakers (+6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Buckeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 PUR @ OSU 74 - 82
Jan 21, 2025 OSU @ PUR 73 - 70
Feb 18, 2024 PUR @ OSU 69 - 73
Mar 11, 2023 OSU @ PUR 66 - 80
Feb 19, 2023 OSU @ PUR 55 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +47.6% more
Purdue: 20.3 vs Ohio State: 10.7
Steals (L5) +24.5% more
Purdue: 5.5 vs Ohio State: 4.2
Rebounding (L5) +13.7% more
Purdue: 31.8 vs Ohio State: 27.4
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Purdue: 50.2% vs Ohio State: 45.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PUR Score 79.0 74
OSU Score 67.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 43.6 38.0 / 38.0
Assists 10.7 / 20.3 9.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.4 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 50.2 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 68.7 / 72.1 78.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 27.4 / 31.8 36.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.2 / 5.5 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 8.0 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR Advantage
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
OSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
OSU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
PUR
OSU
PUR
ML
53% 18-16
67% 26-13
73% 24-9
66% 25-13
ATS
59% 20-14
64% 25-14
73% 24-9
66% 25-13
TTL
56% 19-15
51% 20-19
100% 33-0
100% 38-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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