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WICHITA STATE

SHOCKERSWICH

19-10  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sun, Mar 1 • 8:00 PM ET
UTSA Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

UTSA

ROADRUNNERSUTSA

5-23  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
SHOCKERS
0%
📊
ROADRUNNERS
100%
SHOCKERS --
ROADRUNNERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+13.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
ShockersWICH (-3.5) 0 RoadrunnersUTSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Shockers Cover

9.7%

Roadrunners Cover

90.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTSA +13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

WICH By 1-7 points

18.6%

WICH By 8-14 points

26.8%

UTSA By 1-7 points

6.8%

UTSA By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
78
WICHITA STATE
65
UTSA
Simulated Score
68
WICHITA STATE
72
UTSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Shockers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Roadrunners Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Roadrunners (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
D
Sim Roadrunners (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 WICH @ UTSA 84 - 67
Feb 12, 2025 UTSA @ WICH 64 - 69
Jan 11, 2025 WICH @ UTSA 75 - 88
Feb 7, 2024 UTSA @ WICH 64 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +26.7% more
Wichita State: 41.9 vs UTSA: 30.7
Assists (L5) +53.8% more
UTSA: 13.7 vs Wichita State: 8.9
Steals (L5) +48.0% more
UTSA: 7.3 vs Wichita State: 5.0
Blocks (L5) +34.0% more
UTSA: 3.4 vs Wichita State: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WICH Score 78.0 84
UTSA Score 65.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 28.4 29.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.7 / 8.9 3.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.6 8.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 43.7 33.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 70.2 71.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 30.7 / 41.9 38.0 / 55.0
Steals 7.3 / 5.0 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 10.2 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WICH Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
UTSA
5-25-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WICH Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
UTSA
10-18-0 (35.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WICH
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.0
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
WICH
UTSA
WICH
ML
83% 24-5
61% 22-14
48% 14-15
68% 23-11
ATS
72% 21-8
64% 23-13
50% 15-15
68% 23-11
TTL
66% 19-10
69% 25-11
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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