NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
10-19 | Road
59
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
ISLANDERSAMCC
15-14 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
100%
ISLANDERS
0%
DEMONS
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AMCC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AMCC)
NWST By 1-7 points
10.7%
NWST By 8-14 points
3.3%
AMCC By 1-7 points
23.0%
AMCC By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern State
71
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
81
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Simulated Score
Northwestern State
68
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
75
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Islanders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Islanders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Islanders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Islanders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o133.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u133.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
NWST @ AMCC
59 - 71
Jan 10, 2026
AMCC @ NWST
78 - 79
Mar 10, 2025
AMCC @ NWST
63 - 66
Jan 13, 2025
NWST @ AMCC
64 - 73
Feb 19, 2024
NWST @ AMCC
61 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+62.9% more
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 15.4
vs
Northwestern State: 9.5
Steals (L5)
+33.6% more
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 5.8
vs
Northwestern State: 4.3
Assists (L5)
+28.2% more
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 11.5
vs
Northwestern State: 9.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.0%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: 40.3%
vs
Northwestern State: 28.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NWST Score
71.0
59
AMCC Score
81.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.3 / 28.3
41.0 / 50.0
Assists
11.5 / 9.0
13.0 / 9.0
Blocks
1.6 / 3.0
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 42.1
45.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 76.4
63.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
32.6 / 33.4
32.0 / 33.0
Steals
5.8 / 4.3
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 9.5
5.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
AMCC
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
AMCC
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
AMCC
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AMCC
NWST
AMCC
NWST
ML
70%
21-9
68%
21-10
67%
18-9
77%
23-7
ATS
67%
20-10
68%
21-10
67%
18-9
77%
23-7
TTL
60%
18-12
39%
12-19
100%
27-0
100%
30-0
