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VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

28-17-14  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Mar 1 • 1:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

30-15-13  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Adin Hill
GOALTENDER

Adin Hill

#33 | Goaltender
@
Arturs Silovs
GOALTENDER

Arturs Silovs

#37 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Adin Hill None-None 5.00 0.773 --
Arturs Silovs None-None 0.00 1.000 1
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.00 GAA Ldr 0.00
0.773 Save % Ldr 1.000
-- SO Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
📊
PENGUINS
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
PENGUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

2.3%

Penguins Cover

97.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

VGK By 1 goal

0.9%

VGK By 2-3 goals

0.3%

PIT By 1 goal

6.6%

PIT By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
1
VEGAS
5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
2
VEGAS
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penguins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penguins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim Penguins (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 PIT @ VGK 2 - 6
Mar 1, 2026 VGK @ PIT 0 - 5
Mar 11, 2025 VGK @ PIT 2 - 3
Mar 7, 2025 PIT @ VGK 0 - 4
Jan 20, 2024 PIT @ VGK 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +42.9% more
Pittsburgh: 6.1 vs Vegas: 4.3
Shots on Goal (L5) +13.2% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5 vs Vegas: 26.9
Blocked Shots (L5) +23.3% more
Vegas: 14.5 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Power Play % (L5) +20.1%
Vegas: 22.6% vs Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 1.0 0
PIT Score 5.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
50%MONEY50%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
VGK
PIT
VGK
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
TTL
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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