Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bison @ Bears HOW @ MORG

HOWARD

BISONHOW

18-10  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 4:00 PM ET
Hill Field House
View Odds Details →

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

12-14  |  Home

59
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
BISON --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MORGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BisonHOW (-3.5) 0 BearsMORG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bison Cover

46.0%

Bears Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MORG +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORG)

HOW By 1-7 points

26.2%

HOW By 8-14 points

16.9%

MORG By 1-7 points

24.3%

MORG By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
76
HOWARD
75
MORGAN STATE
Simulated Score
69
HOWARD
82
MORGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bison Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 HOW @ MORG 84 - 59
Jan 24, 2026 MORG @ HOW 78 - 77
Mar 13, 2025 MORG @ HOW 91 - 90
Feb 22, 2025 HOW @ MORG 87 - 81
Jan 11, 2025 MORG @ HOW 95 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +33.9% more
Howard: 4.7 vs Morgan State: 3.1
Steals (L5) +27.4% more
Howard: 7.8 vs Morgan State: 5.6
Assists (L5) +25.1% more
Howard: 21.1 vs Morgan State: 15.8
Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
Howard: 53.9% vs Morgan State: 46.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOW Score 76.0 84
MORG Score 75.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.5 / 39.5 13.0 / 29.0
Assists 15.8 / 21.1 6.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.1 / 4.7 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 53.9 27.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 77.0 71.0 / 66.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 36.1 41.0 / 56.0
Steals 5.6 / 7.8 2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 12.8 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOW Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
MORG
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOW Advantage
22-8-1 (73.3%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
MORG
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOW
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: 0.0
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORG
HOW
MORG
HOW
ML
50% 14-14
59% 20-14
58% 14-10
71% 22-9
ATS
50% 14-14
59% 20-14
58% 14-10
71% 22-9
TTL
50% 14-14
62% 21-13
100% 24-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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