LAMAR
CARDINALSLAM
12-17 | Road
60
INCARNATE WORD
CARDINALSUIW
11-18 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
CARDINALS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
INCARNATE WORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Incarnate Word)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UIW -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIW)
LAM By 1-7 points
16.9%
LAM By 8-14 points
6.8%
UIW By 1-7 points
26.8%
UIW By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Lamar
66
LAMAR
Incarnate Word
72
INCARNATE WORD
Simulated Score
Lamar
78
LAMAR
Incarnate Word
65
INCARNATE WORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-1)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u138.0
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u138.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
LAM @ UIW
60 - 72
Jan 10, 2026
UIW @ LAM
51 - 63
Feb 24, 2025
LAM @ UIW
61 - 73
Jan 6, 2025
UIW @ LAM
58 - 72
Feb 12, 2024
LAM @ UIW
67 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+13.3% more
Incarnate Word: 4.9
vs
Lamar: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.1%
Incarnate Word: 78.5%
vs
Lamar: 66.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.0%
Incarnate Word: 35.6%
vs
Lamar: 29.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Incarnate Word: 40.9%
vs
Lamar: 39.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAM Score
66.0
60
UIW Score
72.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 29.6
44.0 / 18.0
Assists
10.8 / 14.8
10.0 / 7.0
Blocks
1.1 / 3.5
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 39.3
51.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
78.5 / 66.4
80.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
33.6 / 37.4
26.0 / 30.0
Steals
4.9 / 4.4
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 12.1
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAM
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
UIW
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAM
Advantage
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
UIW
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LAM
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.1
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIW
LAM
UIW
LAM
ML
47%
14-16
55%
16-13
76%
22-7
59%
17-12
ATS
53%
16-14
52%
15-14
77%
23-7
60%
18-12
TTL
60%
18-12
72%
21-8
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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