Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Crimson @ Quakers HARV @ PENN

HARVARD

CRIMSONHARV

16-10  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 6:00 PM ET
The Palestra
View Odds Details →

PENNSYLVANIA

QUAKERSPENN

14-11  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON
100%
📊
QUAKERS
0%
CRIMSON --
QUAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PENNSYLVANIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pennsylvania)
CrimsonHARV (-3.5) 0 QuakersPENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crimson Cover

46.0%

Quakers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PENN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PENN)

HARV By 1-7 points

24.3%

HARV By 8-14 points

13.7%

PENN By 1-7 points

26.2%

PENN By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
68
HARVARD
69
PENNSYLVANIA
Simulated Score
71
HARVARD
76
PENNSYLVANIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Quakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Quakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Quakers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Quakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 PENN @ HARV 62 - 60
Feb 28, 2026 HARV @ PENN 61 - 64
Jan 19, 2026 PENN @ HARV 63 - 64
Feb 22, 2025 HARV @ PENN 79 - 78
Jan 20, 2025 PENN @ HARV 82 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +18.5% more
Pennsylvania: 38.2 vs Harvard: 32.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.5%
Pennsylvania: 37.7% vs Harvard: 28.3%
Blocks (L5) +45.9% more
Harvard: 3.4 vs Pennsylvania: 1.8
Steals (L5) +12.8% more
Harvard: 7.9 vs Pennsylvania: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HARV Score 68.0 61
PENN Score 69.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 28.3 35.0 / 24.0
Assists 12.9 / 14.2 9.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.8 / 3.4 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 43.1 42.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 65.6 / 76.5 60.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 38.2 / 32.2 36.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.9 / 7.9 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 9.2 13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
5%MONEY95%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HARV Advantage
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +2.6
PENN
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HARV Advantage
12-13-1 (48.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +2.6
PENN
--
⚖️ Over/Under
HARV
9-17-0
O: 34.6% / U: 65.4% Total +/-: -4.3
PENN
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PENN
HARV
PENN
HARV
ML
53% 16-14
45% 13-16
76% 22-7
52% 15-14
ATS
63% 19-11
45% 13-16
76% 22-7
52% 15-14
TTL
70% 21-9
41% 12-17
100% 29-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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