YALE
BULLDOGSYALE
21-5 | Road
60
COLUMBIA
LIONSCOLU
16-10 | Home
54
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
LIONS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
COLUMBIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Columbia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COLU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLU)
YALE By 1-7 points
8.0%
YALE By 8-14 points
2.2%
COLU By 1-7 points
20.1%
COLU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Yale
61
YALE
Columbia
73
COLUMBIA
Simulated Score
Yale
65
YALE
Columbia
78
COLUMBIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lions (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
YALE @ COLU
60 - 54
Jan 19, 2026
COLU @ YALE
74 - 91
Feb 22, 2025
COLU @ YALE
64 - 90
Jan 18, 2025
YALE @ COLU
92 - 88
Feb 24, 2024
YALE @ COLU
84 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+36.7% more
Columbia: 12.4
vs
Yale: 9.1
Assists (L5)
+18.4% more
Columbia: 17.0
vs
Yale: 14.4
Rebounding (L5)
+8.6% more
Columbia: 35.9
vs
Yale: 33.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Columbia: 38.5%
vs
Yale: 36.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YALE Score
61.0
60
COLU Score
73.0
54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.5 / 36.0
19.0 / 31.0
Assists
17.0 / 14.4
5.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.9 / 3.5
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 46.7
36.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
59.8 / 71.2
89.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
35.9 / 33.1
30.0 / 26.0
Steals
6.2 / 6.1
10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 9.1
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YALE
Advantage
24-7-0
(77.4%)
Margin: 10.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
COLU
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YALE
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 10.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
COLU
Advantage
13-13-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
YALE
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +1.1
COLU
14-12-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLU
YALE
COLU
YALE
ML
44%
12-15
48%
15-16
56%
15-12
58%
18-13
ATS
59%
16-11
65%
20-11
56%
15-12
58%
18-13
TTL
74%
20-7
61%
19-12
100%
27-0
100%
31-0
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