COLGATE
RAIDERSCOLG
17-13 | Road
69
NAVY
MIDSHIPMENNAVY
24-6 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
MIDSHIPMEN
0%
RAIDERS
--
MIDSHIPMEN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
NAVY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Navy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NAVY -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)
COLG By 1-7 points
13.7%
COLG By 8-14 points
4.8%
NAVY By 1-7 points
25.3%
NAVY By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Colgate
70
COLGATE
Navy
78
NAVY
Simulated Score
Colgate
72
COLGATE
Navy
65
NAVY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Midshipmen
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raiders
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Midshipmen (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Raiders (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
COLG @ NAVY
69 - 85
Feb 14, 2026
NAVY @ COLG
84 - 80
Feb 19, 2025
NAVY @ COLG
75 - 79
Jan 15, 2025
COLG @ NAVY
73 - 66
Feb 3, 2024
NAVY @ COLG
64 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+87.6% more
Navy: 7.7
vs
Colgate: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+26.1% more
Navy: 10.1
vs
Colgate: 8.0
Blocks (L5)
+22.0% more
Navy: 3.7
vs
Colgate: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+11.9% more
Navy: 17.0
vs
Colgate: 15.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COLG Score
70.0
69
NAVY Score
78.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.4 / 36.8
40.0 / 41.0
Assists
17.0 / 15.2
23.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.7 / 3.0
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 44.9
50.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 80.7
65.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 35.7
38.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.7 / 4.1
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 8.0
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLG
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
NAVY
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLG
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
NAVY
Advantage
20-11-1
(64.5%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
COLG
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +4.9
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
COLG
NAVY
COLG
ML
79%
26-7
59%
19-13
55%
18-15
69%
22-10
ATS
73%
24-9
72%
23-9
55%
18-15
70%
23-10
TTL
73%
24-9
78%
25-7
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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