UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
19-8 | Road
84
UMASS LOWELL
RIVER HAWKSUML
13-16 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
0%
RIVER HAWKS
100%
RETRIEVERS
--
RIVER HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
UMASS LOWELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UML +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UML)
UMBC By 1-7 points
26.2%
UMBC By 8-14 points
16.9%
UML By 1-7 points
24.3%
UML By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
UMBC
76
UMBC
UMass Lowell
75
UMASS LOWELL
Simulated Score
UMBC
68
UMBC
UMass Lowell
75
UMASS LOWELL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Retrievers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
River Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
River Hawks (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
River Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
UML @ UMBC
69 - 91
Feb 28, 2026
UMBC @ UML
84 - 60
Jan 24, 2026
UML @ UMBC
56 - 79
Feb 20, 2025
UMBC @ UML
79 - 98
Feb 1, 2025
UML @ UMBC
83 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+20.1%
UMBC: 82.8%
vs
UMass Lowell: 62.7%
Assists (L5)
+41.1% more
UMass Lowell: 13.3
vs
UMBC: 9.4
Blocks (L5)
+30.0% more
UMass Lowell: 2.8
vs
UMBC: 2.2
Steals (L5)
+20.6% more
UMass Lowell: 5.2
vs
UMBC: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score
76.0
84
UML Score
75.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 33.2
22.0 / 27.0
Assists
13.3 / 9.4
10.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.2
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 44.7
36.0 / 60.0
Free Throw %
62.7 / 82.8
64.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 37.3
32.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.2 / 4.3
2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.9 / 8.8
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
UML
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
UML
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UML
UMBC
UML
UMBC
ML
70%
23-10
58%
18-13
58%
19-14
55%
17-14
ATS
70%
23-10
68%
21-10
58%
19-14
55%
17-14
TTL
58%
19-14
39%
12-19
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
