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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

34-19-6  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

38-15-4  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 2.01 0.947 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 13.70 0.643 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.01 Ldr GAA 13.70
0.947 Ldr Save % 0.643
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
SABRES --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

BUF By 1 goal

12.1%

BUF By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BUFFALO
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
BUFFALO
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 6, 2026 TB @ BUF 2 - 4
Mar 8, 2026 TB @ BUF 7 - 8
Feb 28, 2026 BUF @ TB 6 - 2
Feb 3, 2026 BUF @ TB 3 - 4
Apr 13, 2025 BUF @ TB 4 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +22.0% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Buffalo: 27.2
Hits (L5) +19.4% more
Tampa Bay: 20.2 vs Buffalo: 16.9
Power Play % (L5) +5.2%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Buffalo: 26.3%
Faceoff % (L5) +1.7%
Tampa Bay: 49.8% vs Buffalo: 48.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 2.0 6
TB Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
63%MONEY37%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BUF
TB
BUF
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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