Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Bengals WEB @ IDST

WEBER STATE

WILDCATSWEB

15-14  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 6:00 PM ET
Reed Gym
View Odds Details →

IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

12-17  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
BENGALS
100%
WILDCATS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WildcatsWEB (-3.5) 0 BengalsIDST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

18.4%

Bengals Cover

81.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IDST +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)

WEB By 1-7 points

24.3%

WEB By 8-14 points

26.8%

IDST By 1-7 points

12.2%

IDST By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
82
WEBER STATE
73
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
75
WEBER STATE
68
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bengals (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim Wildcats (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 WEB @ IDST 83 - 73
Jan 31, 2026 IDST @ WEB 79 - 81
Feb 8, 2025 IDST @ WEB 72 - 67
Jan 11, 2025 WEB @ IDST 77 - 69
Feb 24, 2024 WEB @ IDST 62 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.0% more
Weber State: 7.5 vs Idaho State: 5.3
Assists (L5) +22.0% more
Weber State: 13.3 vs Idaho State: 10.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Weber State: 35.8% vs Idaho State: 31.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Weber State: 49.3% vs Idaho State: 47.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WEB Score 82.0 83
IDST Score 73.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.8 / 35.8 33.0 / 40.0
Assists 10.3 / 13.3 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.7 / 1.0 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 49.3 39.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 83.0 / 79.1 71.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 35.0 35.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.3 / 7.5 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 9.6 6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WEB Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WEB Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.7
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
WEB
IDST
WEB
ML
59% 19-13
73% 22-8
72% 23-9
73% 22-8
ATS
50% 16-16
63% 19-11
72% 23-9
74% 23-8
TTL
59% 19-13
83% 25-5
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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