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GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

18-10  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 10:00 PM ET
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

23-5  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
LOPES
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
LOPES --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Utah State)
LopesGCU (-3.5) 0 AggiesUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lopes Cover

2.3%

Aggies Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

GCU By 1-7 points

1.7%

GCU By 8-14 points

0.3%

USU By 1-7 points

8.0%

USU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
67
GRAND CANYON
87
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
72
GRAND CANYON
75
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 GCU @ USU 69 - 74
Jan 17, 2026 USU @ GCU 74 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +74.9% more
Utah State: 7.6 vs Grand Canyon: 4.3
Assists (L5) +36.4% more
Utah State: 15.6 vs Grand Canyon: 11.5
Blocks (L5) +56.0% more
Grand Canyon: 4.0 vs Utah State: 1.8
Turnovers (L5) +22.1% more
Grand Canyon: 13.1 vs Utah State: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GCU Score 67.0 69
USU Score 87.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 37.5 48.0 / 32.0
Assists 15.6 / 11.5 18.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.8 / 4.0 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 47.8 48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 68.2 / 75.3 58.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 30.9 / 37.6 27.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.6 / 4.3 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 13.1 6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GCU
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GCU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
GCU
USU
GCU
ML
49% 17-18
66% 21-11
66% 21-11
68% 21-10
ATS
74% 26-9
72% 23-9
67% 22-11
68% 21-10
TTL
51% 18-17
44% 14-18
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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