NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
19-9 | Road
83
UNLV
REBELSUNLV
14-14 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
100%
REBELS
0%
WOLF PACK
--
REBELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UNLV)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNLV -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)
NEV By 1-7 points
23.0%
NEV By 8-14 points
12.2%
UNLV By 1-7 points
26.8%
UNLV By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Nevada
75
NEVADA
UNLV
77
UNLV
Simulated Score
Nevada
72
NEVADA
UNLV
76
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rebels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rebels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rebels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Rebels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
NEV @ UNLV
83 - 85
Jan 30, 2026
UNLV @ NEV
76 - 89
Feb 28, 2025
NEV @ UNLV
55 - 68
Feb 1, 2025
UNLV @ NEV
65 - 71
Mar 9, 2024
UNLV @ NEV
65 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+16.6% more
UNLV: 7.4
vs
Nevada: 6.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.4%
UNLV: 42.1%
vs
Nevada: 33.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
UNLV: 48.5%
vs
Nevada: 42.7%
Turnovers (L5)
+38.5% more
Nevada: 12.9
vs
UNLV: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NEV Score
75.0
83
UNLV Score
77.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.1 / 33.7
42.0 / 50.0
Assists
13.1 / 15.0
16.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.3
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 42.7
50.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
67.6 / 73.8
66.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
30.1 / 38.9
39.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.4 / 6.4
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
7.9 / 12.9
16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
UNLV
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
UNLV
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
NEV
UNLV
NEV
ML
50%
17-17
62%
23-14
59%
20-14
73%
27-10
ATS
65%
22-12
73%
27-10
59%
20-14
73%
27-10
TTL
62%
21-13
49%
18-19
100%
34-0
100%
37-0
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