Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buccaneers @ Bears ETSU @ MER

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

21-9  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 4:30 PM ET
Hawkins Arena
View Odds Details →

MERCER

BEARSMER

18-12  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
BUCCANEERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (East Tennessee State)
BuccaneersETSU (-3.5) 0 BearsMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

99.2%

Bears Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ETSU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)

ETSU By 1-7 points

4.0%

ETSU By 8-14 points

12.2%

MER By 1-7 points

0.6%

MER By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
88
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
64
MERCER
Simulated Score
70
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
72
MERCER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 ETSU @ MER 76 - 82
Jan 3, 2026 MER @ ETSU 71 - 77
Feb 26, 2025 MER @ ETSU 58 - 59
Jan 8, 2025 ETSU @ MER 70 - 68
Jan 31, 2024 ETSU @ MER 54 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +28.7% more
East Tennessee State: 13.6 vs Mercer: 9.7
Steals (L5) +22.8% more
East Tennessee State: 6.7 vs Mercer: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5) +2.2%
East Tennessee State: 73.0% vs Mercer: 70.8%
Blocks (L5) +8.5% more
Mercer: 2.8 vs East Tennessee State: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score 88.0 76
MER Score 64.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 31.7 52.0 / 38.0
Assists 9.7 / 13.6 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.6 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.8 / 50.9 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.8 / 73.0 64.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 31.2 / 33.5 32.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.2 / 6.7 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 11.2 9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
MER
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MER
ETSU
MER
ETSU
ML
55% 17-14
42% 14-19
71% 22-9
70% 23-10
ATS
58% 18-13
58% 19-14
71% 22-9
70% 23-10
TTL
61% 19-12
45% 15-18
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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