HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
37-21 | Road
105
MIAMI
HEATMIA
31-29 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
HEAT
100%
ROCKETS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
9.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
20.1%
MIA By 1-7 points
2.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
129
HOUSTON
Miami
110
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Houston
105
HOUSTON
Miami
110
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+2)
Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o226.0
Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u226.0
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
MIA @ HOU
122 - 123
Feb 28, 2026
HOU @ MIA
105 - 115
Mar 21, 2025
HOU @ MIA
102 - 98
Dec 29, 2024
MIA @ HOU
104 - 100
Apr 5, 2024
MIA @ HOU
119 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+50.6% more
Houston: 8.0
vs
Miami: 3.9
Turnovers (L5)
+12.7% more
Houston: 16.2
vs
Miami: 14.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
Houston: 52.0%
vs
Miami: 46.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.5%
Houston: 82.7%
vs
Miami: 77.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
129.0
105
MIA Score
110.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 39.8
35.0 / 25.0
Assists
29.2 / 26.1
22.0 / 26.0
Blocks
3.9 / 8.0
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 52.0
50.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
77.2 / 82.7
70.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
50.7 / 44.1
47.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.3 / 7.7
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 16.2
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
HOU
MIA
HOU
ML
48%
46-50
61%
69-44
59%
48-34
59%
51-35
ATS
51%
49-47
62%
70-43
59%
48-34
59%
51-35
TTL
59%
57-39
51%
58-55
100%
82-0
100%
86-0
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