Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Wizards TOR @ WSH

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

34-25  |  Road

134
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

16-42  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
WIZARDS
0%
RAPTORS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Washington)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

4.5%

Wizards Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

TOR By 1-7 points

3.3%

TOR By 8-14 points

0.6%

WSH By 1-7 points

12.2%

WSH By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
106
TORONTO
123
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
112
TORONTO
118
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wizards Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wizards (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u230.5 Loss
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim u230.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 TOR @ WSH 134 - 125
Dec 26, 2025 TOR @ WSH 117 - 138
Nov 21, 2025 WSH @ TOR 110 - 140
Oct 12, 2025 TOR @ WSH 113 - 112
Mar 24, 2025 TOR @ WSH 112 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.4% more
Washington: 15.3 vs Toronto: 13.4
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
Washington: 82.9% vs Toronto: 77.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Toronto: 37.3% vs Washington: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 106.0 134
WSH Score 123.0 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 37.3 47.0 / 41.0
Assists 23.1 / 25.0 23.0 / 31.0
Blocks 5.4 / 5.2 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 44.9 53.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 82.9 / 77.4 71.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 42.2 / 43.6 35.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.8 / 9.0 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 13.4 14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TOR
WSH
TOR
ML
70% 112-49
55% 57-47
47% 39-44
55% 48-39
ATS
69% 111-49-1
61% 62-40-2
47% 39-44
55% 48-39
TTL
74% 119-41-1
60% 62-42
100% 83-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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