MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
DELTA DEVILSMVSU
2-27 | Road
70
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
GOLDEN LIONSUAPB
12-16 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
DELTA DEVILS
100%
GOLDEN LIONS
0%
DELTA DEVILS
--
GOLDEN LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Arkansas-Pine Bluff)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UAPB -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAPB)
MVSU By 1-7 points
13.7%
MVSU By 8-14 points
4.8%
UAPB By 1-7 points
25.3%
UAPB By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Mississippi Valley State
65
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
73
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Simulated Score
Mississippi Valley State
65
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
72
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Golden Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
MVSU @ UAPB
70 - 69
Jan 31, 2026
UAPB @ MVSU
78 - 70
Mar 1, 2025
UAPB @ MVSU
83 - 58
Feb 1, 2025
MVSU @ UAPB
79 - 76
Mar 2, 2024
MVSU @ UAPB
69 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+29.6% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 14.8
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 11.4
Blocks (L5)
+28.6% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 2.4
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 1.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.8%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 72.3%
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 64.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 34.7%
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 28.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MVSU Score
65.0
70
UAPB Score
73.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 28.0
19.0 / 29.0
Assists
14.8 / 11.4
14.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.4 / 1.9
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 40.9
40.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
72.3 / 64.6
70.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
29.6 / 31.2
34.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.4 / 8.5
11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 14.2
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MVSU
3-30-0
(9.1%)
Margin: -18.8
ATS +/-: +0.4
UAPB
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MVSU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -18.8
ATS +/-: +0.4
UAPB
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.0
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAPB
MVSU
UAPB
MVSU
ML
74%
23-8
91%
30-3
73%
19-7
75%
18-6
ATS
73%
22-8-1
82%
27-6
73%
19-7
75%
18-6
TTL
68%
21-10
58%
19-14
100%
26-0
100%
24-0