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UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

13-17  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 6:00 PM ET
Pete Hanna Center
View Odds Details →

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

17-13  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
SPARTANS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SpartansUNCG (-3.5) 0 BulldogsSAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

18.4%

Bulldogs Cover

81.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAM +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)

UNCG By 1-7 points

24.3%

UNCG By 8-14 points

26.8%

SAM By 1-7 points

12.2%

SAM By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
85
UNC GREENSBORO
76
SAMFORD
Simulated Score
75
UNC GREENSBORO
78
SAMFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 UNCG @ SAM 78 - 87
Jan 3, 2026 SAM @ UNCG 82 - 89
Mar 1, 2025 SAM @ UNCG 100 - 108
Jan 11, 2025 UNCG @ SAM 69 - 76
Feb 8, 2024 SAM @ UNCG 78 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +37.2% more
UNC Greensboro: 7.1 vs Samford: 4.4
Blocks (L5) +16.2% more
UNC Greensboro: 1.2 vs Samford: 1.0
Turnovers (L5) +9.0% more
UNC Greensboro: 10.2 vs Samford: 9.3
Assists (L5) +21.8% more
Samford: 15.6 vs UNC Greensboro: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCG Score 85.0 78
SAM Score 76.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.2 / 37.4 51.0 / 55.0
Assists 15.6 / 12.8 16.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.0 / 1.2 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.2 / 48.4 50.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 73.8 70.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 32.1 40.0 / 32.0
Steals 4.4 / 7.1 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 10.2 14.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCG
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
SAM Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAM
UNCG
SAM
UNCG
ML
65% 20-11
38% 13-21
68% 21-10
71% 24-10
ATS
68% 21-10
44% 15-19
68% 21-10
71% 24-10
TTL
35% 11-20
76% 26-8
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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