MASSACHUSETTS
MINUTEMENMASS
15-14 | Road
62
BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
16-13 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
MINUTEMEN
100%
FALCONS
0%
MINUTEMEN
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Bowling Green)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BGSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)
MASS By 1-7 points
21.6%
MASS By 8-14 points
10.7%
BGSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
BGSU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Massachusetts
81
MASSACHUSETTS
Bowling Green
84
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
Massachusetts
69
MASSACHUSETTS
Bowling Green
75
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Falcons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Falcons (+4)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
MASS @ BGSU
62 - 81
Jan 3, 2026
BGSU @ MASS
101 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+72.5% more
Bowling Green: 4.5
vs
Massachusetts: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+12.7% more
Bowling Green: 5.8
vs
Massachusetts: 5.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.9%
Bowling Green: 70.2%
vs
Massachusetts: 67.3%
Assists (L5)
+29.2% more
Massachusetts: 16.8
vs
Bowling Green: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MASS Score
81.0
62
BGSU Score
84.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 36.9
39.0 / 30.0
Assists
11.9 / 16.8
14.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.5 / 2.6
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 46.7
48.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
70.2 / 67.3
86.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
35.9 / 39.8
37.0 / 29.0
Steals
5.8 / 5.1
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 13.4
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -0.9
BGSU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -0.9
BGSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
20-12-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +4.5
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
MASS
BGSU
MASS
ML
66%
21-11
44%
14-18
56%
18-14
68%
21-10
ATS
72%
23-9
47%
15-17
56%
18-14
68%
21-10
TTL
53%
17-15
56%
18-14
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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