SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
14-16 | Road
70
SOUTH DAKOTA
COYOTESSDAK
15-15 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
100%
COYOTES
0%
JACKRABBITS
--
COYOTES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SOUTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (South Dakota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDAK -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDAK)
SDST By 1-7 points
21.6%
SDST By 8-14 points
10.7%
SDAK By 1-7 points
27.2%
SDAK By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota State
76
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
South Dakota
79
SOUTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
South Dakota State
76
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
South Dakota
72
SOUTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Coyotes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jackrabbits
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Coyotes (+3)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Jackrabbits (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.0
Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u151.0
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
SDST @ SDAK
70 - 75
Feb 7, 2026
SDAK @ SDST
68 - 67
Feb 16, 2025
SDST @ SDAK
94 - 91
Jan 25, 2025
SDAK @ SDST
71 - 90
Feb 4, 2024
SDAK @ SDST
67 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+10.9% more
South Dakota: 10.6
vs
South Dakota State: 9.6
Rebounding (L5)
+19.9% more
South Dakota State: 39.8
vs
South Dakota: 31.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.6%
South Dakota State: 39.8%
vs
South Dakota: 29.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.1%
South Dakota State: 75.9%
vs
South Dakota: 70.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDST Score
76.0
70
SDAK Score
79.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.2 / 39.8
25.0 / 44.0
Assists
13.0 / 14.0
12.0 / 11.0
Blocks
1.9 / 1.9
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 46.6
45.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
70.9 / 75.9
81.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 39.8
27.0 / 40.0
Steals
4.6 / 4.2
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 9.6
7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
SDAK
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
SDAK
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDAK
SDST
SDAK
SDST
ML
70%
21-9
75%
24-8
63%
19-11
53%
17-15
ATS
70%
21-9
78%
25-7
63%
19-11
53%
17-15
TTL
67%
20-10
53%
17-15
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
