TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
15-13 | Road
79
OHIO
BOBCATSOHIO
15-13 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
BOBCATS
0%
ROCKETS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Ohio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OHIO -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)
TOL By 1-7 points
4.8%
TOL By 8-14 points
1.1%
OHIO By 1-7 points
15.3%
OHIO By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toledo
70
TOLEDO
Ohio
85
OHIO
Simulated Score
Toledo
71
TOLEDO
Ohio
78
OHIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
TOL @ OHIO
79 - 67
Jan 13, 2026
OHIO @ TOL
85 - 101
Mar 13, 2025
OHIO @ TOL
85 - 90
Mar 7, 2025
OHIO @ TOL
82 - 96
Jan 28, 2025
TOL @ OHIO
86 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.9% more
Toledo: 17.5
vs
Ohio: 14.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Toledo: 40.1%
vs
Ohio: 34.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.5%
Toledo: 51.6%
vs
Ohio: 46.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.7%
Toledo: 75.5%
vs
Ohio: 71.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOL Score
70.0
79
OHIO Score
85.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 40.1
32.0 / 29.0
Assists
14.2 / 17.5
11.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.9
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 51.6
40.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 75.5
50.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
32.1 / 33.1
36.0 / 45.0
Steals
6.3 / 6.8
2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.1 / 8.6
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL
Advantage
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
OHIO
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
OHIO
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
OHIO
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
TOL
OHIO
TOL
ML
65%
20-11
48%
16-17
63%
19-11
61%
20-13
ATS
68%
21-10
48%
16-17
63%
19-11
61%
20-13
TTL
61%
19-12
64%
21-12
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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