Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Tommies OMA @ STMN

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

15-15  |  Road

53
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 9:00 PM ET
Lee & Penny Anderson Arena
View Odds Details →

ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA

TOMMIESSTMN

22-8  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
TOMMIES
0%
MAVERICKS --
TOMMIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
MavericksOMA (-3.5) 0 TommiesSTMN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

3.6%

Tommies Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STMN -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)

OMA By 1-7 points

2.7%

OMA By 8-14 points

0.5%

STMN By 1-7 points

10.7%

STMN By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
60
OMAHA
78
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
70
OMAHA
75
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tommies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tommies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tommies (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Tommies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 OMA @ STMN 53 - 68
Feb 12, 2026 STMN @ OMA 94 - 98
Mar 9, 2025 STMN @ OMA 75 - 85
Feb 15, 2025 OMA @ STMN 84 - 95
Jan 23, 2025 STMN @ OMA 78 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +50.2% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 18.9 vs Omaha: 12.6
Field Goal % (L5) +7.0%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 55.5% vs Omaha: 48.6%
Blocks (L5) +15.6% more
Omaha: 4.1 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 3.5
Turnovers (L5) +14.5% more
Omaha: 10.3 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OMA Score 60.0 53
STMN Score 78.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.0 / 42.1 33.0 / 21.0
Assists 18.9 / 12.6 19.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.5 / 4.1 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 55.5 / 48.6 44.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 65.4 / 72.2 46.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 33.8 42.0 / 34.0
Steals 4.7 / 4.7 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 10.3 8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OMA
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
STMN Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OMA
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
STMN Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
OMA
STMN
OMA
ML
64% 21-12
79% 26-7
64% 21-12
67% 22-11
ATS
70% 23-10
76% 25-8
64% 21-12
67% 22-11
TTL
61% 20-13
73% 24-9
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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