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BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

17-11  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 7:30 PM ET
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

12-16  |  Home

53
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
BRONCOS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BroncosBOIS (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

34.5%

Bulldogs Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FRES +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)

BOIS By 1-7 points

27.4%

BOIS By 8-14 points

21.6%

FRES By 1-7 points

20.1%

FRES By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
78
BOISE STATE
74
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
73
BOISE STATE
68
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (+7) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Broncos (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.0 Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u149.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 BOIS @ FRES 69 - 53
Mar 1, 2025 BOIS @ FRES 66 - 61
Feb 1, 2025 FRES @ BOIS 60 - 82
Feb 17, 2024 FRES @ BOIS 66 - 90
Jan 23, 2024 BOIS @ FRES 72 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +68.7% more
Boise State: 3.8 vs Fresno State: 1.2
Free Throw % (L5) +16.9%
Boise State: 86.2% vs Fresno State: 69.3%
Steals (L5) +84.8% more
Fresno State: 6.1 vs Boise State: 3.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Fresno State: 35.9% vs Boise State: 33.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 78.0 69
FRES Score 74.0 53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 33.3 17.0 / 30.0
Assists 13.3 / 13.0 7.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.2 / 3.8 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 47.8 41.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 69.3 / 86.2 67.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 33.4 30.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.1 / 3.3 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 10.8 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
BOIS
FRES
BOIS
ML
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
74% 23-8
61% 19-12
ATS
75% 24-8
50% 16-16
74% 23-8
61% 19-12
TTL
56% 18-14
56% 18-14
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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