Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Horned Frogs @ Wildcats TCU @ KSU

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

18-10  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 6:30 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

11-17  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
HORNED FROGS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Kansas State)
Horned FrogsTCU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Horned Frogs Cover

42.1%

Wildcats Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

TCU By 1-7 points

23.0%

TCU By 8-14 points

12.2%

KSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

KSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
85
TCU
87
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
68
TCU
72
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o159.5 Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 TCU @ KSU 77 - 68
Feb 7, 2026 KSU @ TCU 82 - 84
Jan 4, 2025 KSU @ TCU 62 - 63
Feb 17, 2024 TCU @ KSU 75 - 72
Mar 9, 2023 TCU @ KSU 80 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.3% more
Kansas State: 13.0 vs TCU: 10.1
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Kansas State: 43.2% vs TCU: 40.6%
Blocks (L5) +26.5% more
TCU: 3.6 vs Kansas State: 2.6
Steals (L5) +23.5% more
TCU: 9.4 vs Kansas State: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 85.0 77
KSU Score 87.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 33.5 35.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.1 / 15.9 19.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.6 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 40.6 50.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 69.2 / 68.6 44.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 38.2 31.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.2 / 9.4 7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 10.1 18.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
TCU
KSU
TCU
ML
59% 19-13
74% 26-9
69% 22-10
63% 19-11
ATS
62% 20-12
74% 26-9
69% 22-10
63% 19-11
TTL
47% 15-17
66% 23-12
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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